Winter 2010 Market Comment

With winter gate-crashing autumn this year and thoughts turning to the festive season, the level of property coming to the market in Edinburgh and the Lothian has tailed off significantly. That said there is more than enough stock on the market in most sectors to provide purchasers with a reasonable choice.

Recent monthly and quarterly statistics are beginning to show the price falls that those closest to the market have known about for some time. With the overwhelming trend being price reductions of already marketed stock since late summer this was inevitable and will no doubt continue into 2011. Research from Savills suggests a fall of 1.5% for the prime Scottish market during 2011 and a return to growth from 2012 onwards.

Statistics, of course, always come with a slightly annoying lag or worse, contrive to hide what is actually happening. At a very simple level, for example, the lower and middle markets in Edinburgh could pick up significantly in terms of volumes with even slight growth and the statistics would report that the average price of an Edinburgh property had fallen with more transactions at a lower dragging the average transaction value down. One thing is sure, by the time statistics filter through on price growth solicitors, estate agents and off course buying agents will have been aware of this for some time and will already be advising clients accordingly. Simple advice is to look to transaction numbers rather than average price for the health and future direction of the market.

With no significant thawing of the frozen mortgage market it is a tough time for those requiring debt funding. That said it certainly remains a buyers market for those with the ability to move and those who have bought this year so far are likely to have made a sound move over the medium to long term.